Larry Sabato's Early Look: Tough For Dems To Hold Senate In 2012

VERY early read: GOP has edge in 2012 Senate races
OK, so the new Senate just took office this week. It's time to look at what might happen in the NEXT election. Can the Republicans finish the job they started in 2010 and take a majority? Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, today rolls out his first, very preliminary look at the 33 Senate seats that are up for election in 2012. "It is ridiculously early, of course," Sabato concedes. "Any analyst who would call these Ratings predic...

Senate Dems Want Secret Ballot for Chairmanships But Bolshevik Card Check Laws for American Workers
Their hypocrisy is never ending. Senate Democrats want to start using secret ballots to elect committee chairmanships. Senate Democrats elected in 2006 and 2008 are challenging the internal Caucus procedures that have allowed Veteran lawmakers to lock up committee chairmanships for years on end. A group of junior Democratic senators are pushing for committee chairmen to stand for election at the beginning of each Congress, a requirement that has not been in effect for years, according to lawmak...

Democrats Becoming A Minority Party Comprised of Minorities
If Minorities are so supportive of Democrats, why aren't there more Minorities holding elected office under the Democrat banner? Major Garrett, formerly of Fox News and now writing for the National Journal, pointed folks to an article written by one of his colleagues, Ronald Brownstein, which was a dissection of the racial demographics of the voters in the latest national election. The report is disturbing in that it points to a real divide in this country along racial lines in regards to part...

Obama Plays Right Into Republicans Hands By Issuing Veto Threat On Obamacare Repeal
Politically playing directly into Republican's hands, Barack Obama wades into the ObamaCare Repeal fight being publicly fought in Washington between House Republicans and Senate Democrats by issuing a Veto threat should a Repeal bill make it to his desk. Is he worried that the 23 Senate Democrat that are up for Reelection might actually vote to Repeal Obamacare? By The Numbers Polling numbers, averaged by RCP from a variety of polling organizations, show that on average 53.4 percent of of Amer...

Cervantes is seeking votes to become speaker
State Rep. Joseph Cervantes is trying to form a Bipartisan coalition to become speaker and has committed to Republicans that he’s on board if they are, three Democrats who support Cervantes say. “He is committed. He is fully committed,” Rep. Andy Nuñez, D-Hatch, said of the Las Cruces Democrat. “It’s in Republicans’ lap,” said Rep. Dona Irwin, D-Deming. “Voters have spoken. They want change. Now it’s up to Republicans. Do they want chang...

Fifty Three Schumers
Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) has always had a knack for getting media attention, but now his strategy is about to go viral, at least among Senate Democrats. Politico reports that "Democratic leaders are building a new messaging machine for the entire 53-member Democratic Caucus that replicates Schumer's tactics in driving national and regional news." The model: "The idea is to identify hot-button issues early, frame them in a favorable light for the party and allow Democratic senators to relentl...

Junior Senate Dems want chairmen to face election by secret ballot
Source: The Hill Senate Democrats elected in 2006 and 2008 are challenging the internal Caucus procedures that have allowed Veteran lawmakers to lock up committee chairmanships for years on end. A group of junior Democratic senators are pushing for committee chairmen to stand for election at the beginning of each Congress, a requirement that has not been in effect for years, according to lawmakers familiar with the discussions. They want to have more of a say in the leadership of powerful commit...

Casey looks pretty solid
PPP's early looks ahead to the 2012 Senate races have found a lot of the Democrats first elected in the wave year of 2006 to be extremely vulnerable for Reelection- Bob Casey is not one of them. He has solid approval numbers and leads five prospective opponents tested against him by margins ranging from 7 to 23 points. 41% of voters in the state approve of the job Casey is doing to 29% who disapprove. He's on positive ground with Independents but the most striking thing within his numbers is th...

Junior Senate Dems want chairmen to face election by secret ballot
Senate Democrats elected in 2006 and 2008 are challenging the internal Caucus procedures that have allowed Veteran lawmakers to lock up committee chairmanships for years on end. A group of junior Democratic senators are pushing for committee chairmen to stand for election at the beginning of each Congress, a requirement that has not been in effect for years, according to lawmakers familiar with the discussions. They want to have more of a say in the leadership of powerful committees, such as t...

Senate Dems try to mimic Schumer
Democrats in the Senate have long been envious about Sen. Chuck Schumer’s ability to grab media attention on even the most innocuous local issues. That’s about to change. Continue Reading Text Size - + reset Politico 44 Under a plan conceived by the aggressive New Yorker and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, Democratic leaders are building a new messaging machine for the entire 53-member Democratic Caucus that replicates Schumer’s tactics in driving national and regional ne...

Senate Dems Bolt Democratic Caucus
Four Democratic state senators announced today—the first day of the 2011 legislative session—that they are bolting the Democratic conference and will form their own "Independent Democratic Caucus." "We are Democrats, but we can no longer in good conscience support the present Democratic leadership," said Senator Jeff Klein, who is leading the new group. He was joined by Diane Savino of Staten Island, upstater David Valesky, and newcomer David Carlucci from the Hudson Valley. The mo...

House plans test vote Friday on health care repeal
WASHINGTON (AP) — The House opens a largely symbolic debate Friday on whether to Repeal President Obama's landmark Health Care overhaul, the culmination of the first week with Republicans back in charge. A procedural vote around midday will set the rules for formal debate and final action next Wednesday. House Republicans want to Repeal Mr. Obama's plan to expand coverage to more than 30 million Uninsured and start over again with a more modest, less costly approach. But Democratic leaders...

Dont Underestimate Michele Bachmann
While her fledgling presidential run is being greeted by snickering and catcalls from the peanut gallery on both sides of the political spectrum, I believe that it is a huge mistake to “misunderestimate” the congresswoman from Minnesota. Given the tenor of the current political environment, and given the personal and political strengths that Rep. Bachmann brings to the table, it seems to me that Ms. Bachmann may be walking into a nomination contest that was tailor made for a candid...

McAuliffe active in Tuesday special elections
The former Democratic National Committee chairman and deep-pocketed businessman has made sure to help out Candidates for the General Assembly in each election since he was defeated for the Democratic nomination for Governor by Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) in June 2009, as he looks to build support around the state in preparation for a likely run for Governor again in 2013. Davis is running against attorney Bill Stanley (R) in the election to replace U.S. Rep. Robert Hurt (R), who resigned his Senate se...

Why the GOPs Repeal Vote Is a Political Win
The House has scheduled a vote to Repeal ObamaCare for January 12, 2011.  This is a wise move.  First, Republicans promised that they would do it and it is always astonishing when a party fulfills its promises.  Much of the Contract with America did not eventually pass but it was all promptly voted on in the House.  This gave the leadership credibility.  If Elections matter such votes should be held.  Second, it will be a Probe of the Democrats’ strength and weakness on

Coxs Fashion Advice For Cuomo
(OK, not really, it’s actually a metaphor). State GOP Chairman Ed Cox was on hand for Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s first State of the State address Wednesday and said the Republicans plan to hold the Democratic Governor’s feet to the fire when it comes to making good on his pledges of Fiscal Conservatism. “The governor stole our clothes, we want to be sure he wears them the right way,” Cox said. Cox said he’s optimistic about the Cuomo era. He also sounded a hopeful ...

Buyers Remorse for Nevada Republicans
If Nevada Republicans could do it all over again....they wouldn't, when it comes to nominating Sharron Angle. 68% of GOP voters in the state say they wish the party had nominated somebody different than Angle to run against Harry Reid last year while only 27% are still content for her to have been the Candidate. On one hand you could see this as an indication that voters in places like Colorado and Delaware and Nevada might really have Buyers Remorse about nominating candidates last year who we...

One of Ben Nelson's GOP Rivals Makes It Official
Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning filed paperwork with FEC yesterday making his candidacy for U.S. Senate official. A formal announcement will come in a few weeks. If he wins the primary, he’ll be taking on two-term Incumbent Democrat Ben Nelson, famous for the “Cornhusker Kickback.” A GOP poll shows Nelson in considerable trouble, albeit two years away from Election Day: A new poll by a right-leaning consulting group released Dec. 22 shows Sen. Ben Nelson trailing a pair...

The Gallup Poll, Worse News for Obamacare Than the Headline Suggests
Gallup’s headline is, “46% Favor, 40% Oppose Repealing Healthcare Law,” but I think they’re overlooking the bigger news. First, the idea that 14 percent of Americans have no opinion whether or not ObamaCare goes into effect is pretty surprising and interesting. Note that Obama and the Democrats need this to be a driving issue for voters in 2012; put another way, only 40 percent of adults (not Registered Voters, not Likely Voters) say they want to keep ObamaCare as it is...

MEGAN MCARDLE ON THE DEBT CEILING: I dont have a problem with Republicans using the opportunity o
Megan McArdle ON THE Debt CEILING: “I don’t have a problem with Republicans using the opportunity of raising the debt ceiling to demagogue the Deficit problem-this is one issue that needs all the passion it can get. And Democrats can hardly complain, since one Senator Barack Obama was doing just that four years ago. However. If Republicans want to reduce the deficit-and they say they do!-then they should find some damn Spending Cuts to match the gargantuan Tax Cut...

Attorney Nicholas Pignone appointed to Potsdam village justice seat, effective immediately
POTSDAM — A 45-year-old Massachusetts native has been appointed village justice by Mayor Reinhold J. Tischler. Nicholas Pignone will replace former Justice Joseph T. Welch, who resigned in December following allegations of illegal drug use. Mr. Pignone is a native of Pittsfield, Mass., and most recently was employed with the Ingram Law Firm in Potsdam. He is in the process of opening a solo law practice in the village. Potsdam Village Administrator David H. Fenton Jr. said Mr. Pignone wa...

Breakaway Senate Dems form Indy/Dem caucus
As if the upcoming State of the State Speech wasn’t news enough for this Wednesday, a group of four Dissident Senate Democrats, newly in the minority, have announced formation of a breakaway independent Democratic Caucus which appears more philosophically aligned with Andrew Cuomo and Senate Republicans on issues like a tax cap and fiscal restraint than the Senate Dems as a whole. Led by Jeff Klein, Bronx/Westchester  and joined by Broolyn, Staten Island’s Diane Savino, Syracuse&#...

Democrats Arent Doomed to Lose the Senate in 2012
With nearly a full two years until the next election, the idea that Democrats are pre-ordained to lose at least four Senate seats, costing them their majority, is already gaining broad traction with both Democratic senators like Claire McCaskill and writers like Ed Kilgore. The dynamics of the 2012 Senate Elections don’t favor Democrats inherently: they are defending 23 seats while Republicans defend only ten. However, there is no reason to believe the majority is lost so far out from th...

Senate Dems release filibuster proposal
Despite some skepticism among members - including Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), Senate Democrats have released their proposal to change the rules for the Filibuster (you can read it full at the bottom of the post or click here): The package includes a concession to Senate Republicans who demanded a curb on Majority Leader Harry Reid’s (D-Nev.) power to prevent amendments from getting votes. The most significant proposed reform would require senators who wage filibusters to actually hold the floor by...

GOP House to Introduce Bill to Eliminate President Barack Obamas Czars
All the President’s Czar’s … maybe not any longer. House Republicans of the new 112th Congress  introduced a bill yesterday that would eliminate Barack Obama’s 39 czars. What a novel concept that “a head of any Task Force, council, policy office within the Executive Office of the President” would have to require Senate confirmation. That goes for any party in office. As stated at Weasel Zippers , Elections have consequences. From The Hill : A group of House R